In late-2023, the EU adopted a new enlargement package, establishing the goal and real prospect of new countries joining the European Union within the next decade. But what might this mean for the EU’s climate ambitions?
Future Impacts has completed a year-long project exploring this question. The project brought together over 240 experts from across Europe in forward-looking discussions and workshops. Supported by the European Climate Foundation, it aims to shed light on this underexplored topic and inspire reflection within and beyond the climate action community. The results are now available here.
Through imagining alternative European futures, a set of scenarios to 2035 was developed that explored the fundamental uncertainties and questions regarding EU accession, reforms, and political priorities, as well as potential implications for climate action.
The key messages from the process:
- Enlargement is viewed as likely—if not necessary—for ensuring European security.
- Enlargement is very likely to benefit global climate action.
- Effective and relatively swift EU reform is essential for successful enlargement.
- A positive impact of enlargement on climate action depends even more heavily on EU reform.
- Enlargement will not be successful without (strong) political will.
- Democratic backsliding and rising authoritarianism currently undermine support for both the EU and climate action.
The four scenarios:
More is less
As defence drives European integration, simplified enlargement expands the EU without reform, making consensus on key issues harder to achieve.
Pacemakers and Stragglers
Under policy-based integration, a multi-tier EU expands the common market through staged accession.
Deadlock
With enlargement abandoned, the EU struggles to advance toward net zero, as trust and cooperation erode and democratic backsliding deepens in some member states.
Reformed Resilience
A reformed, enlarged EU overcomes obstacles and gains momentum toward climate neutrality, driven by grassroots demand and global cooperation.
From this, key areas of action were identified that will support climate action across all scenarios:
- Reimagining the EU’s foundational logic is essential to drive the necessary reforms.
- Making climate action a core, non-negotiable priority is critical.
- Political leaders must demonstrate that climate action is essential to security and economic stability.
- Enabling specific policy and implementation mechanisms is crucial.
We extend our heartfelt thanks to all contributors who generously shared their time and expertise. We are also grateful to our partner organisations for their support: the Open Society Foundation Western Balkans, the European Fund for the Balkans, the Centre for European Reform and 89up. To the European Climate Foundation—who initiated, funded, championed and guided this project—thank you for your steadfast commitment to a better European future.
The full report is available here, and a two-page summary of the scenarios and key insights can be found here. To learn more and join upcoming discussions, visit the project website.