For the European Union Drugs Agency (EUDA):
Over the past several years, we have supported the European Union Drugs Agency (EUDA) in building its foresight capacity. Through a range of activities – including horizon scanning, trend workshops, foresight toolkits, and the development of framework scenarios – we have jointly explored possible futures for drugs and addictions in the European Union.
Selected (published) outputs of this work include:
Development of framework scenarios:
We developed three EUDA framework scenarios exploring alternative futures for the drugs and addiction landscape in the EU to 2040. Designed to spark debate and reflection, these scenarios highlight the potential implications of diverse developments– for society at large, and for trends in drug use, addiction, monitoring, and policy responses. The scenarios were built using a key-factor-based methodology, supported by a literature review, expert surveys, and other foresight methods.
The three framework scenarios in a nutshell:
Scenario 1: EU Harmony:
By 2040, the EU is stable, well-funded, and marked by high social cohesion and collective well-being. A steady influx of young migrant workers fuels innovation and contributes to increasingly diverse and inclusive societies.
Scenario 2: Barely Managing:
In 2040, a rapidly changing global backdrop is widening societal divides and reshaping societies. EU authorities are currently keeping pace with rising complexities in drug and medicine misuse, …but for how long?
Scenario 3: House of Cards:
By 2040, environmental and economic crises have pushed societies to the brink. Social fragmentation is accelerating, healthcare systems are overwhelmed, and drug use and addiction are pervasive across all layers of society.
The framework scenarios are not fixed outcomes, but a living, evolving tool– designed to be continually updated with new developments and insights. Read more about the scenarios and their development process here.
Foresight Workshops:
We have designed and delivered several foresight workshops, including scenario engagement sessions at the Lisbon Addictions conference in 2022 and 2024. During these interactive workshops, participants explored the EUDA framework scenarios and generated insights on the potential impacts each scenario could have on the drugs and addictions field. They then reflected on what these changes might mean for key stakeholders by 2040. The outcomes helped further refine EUDA’s evolving framework scenarios.
Additional workshops were conducted with EUDA´s national focal points and other relevant stakeholders across Europe to gather new insights, broaden engagement and incorporate diverse perspectives.
Foresight Toolkit:
We developed an online foresight toolkit and accompanying resources to support EUDA stakeholders, as well as researchers and actors in the drugs field, in conducting their own foresight exercises. Designed as an introduction to trend-based foresight, the toolkit presents a structured approach to foresight and trend analysis, along with key principles for their effective application in the context of drugs and addiction. It offers clear guidance on preparing, implementing, and documenting a foresight workshop, including practical templates such as sample agendas, posters, and step-by-step instructions for each workshop component.